Published research is leaning bullish on US equities at both cyclical and strategic horizons — but a vocal minority is flagging a topping process underneath the surface.
The bull case, as laid out across recent research, rests on two pillars: near-term optimism around an Iran deal lifting futures, and the structural AI capex cycle driving productivity and margins. One camp of analysts adds a macro-liquidity tailwind — accelerating money supply and a Fed unlikely to hike — alongside a wealth effect compounded by pro-rich fiscal policy.
The bear thread is sharper. A contrarian set of researchers sees classic topping behavior: deteriorating breadth, sector divergences, and a likely rollover this quarter. Others warn that passive flows are masking real cracks in labor markets and credit.
On single names, recently-published views are constructive on US defense and aerospace, citing bipartisan budgets and a roughly $15B drone opportunity, with GE Aerospace, Kratos, VSE Corp and AeroVironment flagged. REIT research is mixed — bullish on healthcare, cell tower and timberland names, bearish on broader real estate as office distress mounts.