US equity research is split — and the disagreement is as much about time horizon as direction.
On the bullish side, some recently-published views frame the S&P 500 case around upgraded 2026 earnings of around $335 per share and a sustained 24x multiple, with mega-cap tech and AI infrastructure driving outsized growth into mid-2027.
A more cautious camp of analysts argues rising Treasury yields compress the value of long-dated cash flows, hitting the growth names that led the index and risking a chain reaction into leveraged AI plays, consumer spending, and earnings. One contrarian thread adds that in today's inflation-focused regime, strong economic data is now bad for stocks because it implies tighter policy — a dynamic reinforced while the Iran conflict lingers.
On single names, researchers see event-driven upside in Tesla, Amazon, and Disney if energy prices fall, and view semiconductor and memory stocks as a durable hardware-inflation theme. One high-conviction short call: a rumored $2T SpaceX IPO at 100x sales, flagged for a potential 50%+ drop within a year of listing.