Published research on US Treasuries is split, and the split is mostly about time horizon.
Near term, one camp of analysts argues the 10-year yield is heading back above 5%, pointing to large fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury supply, resilient growth, AI-driven capital demand, and a higher term premium baked into the new rate regime. A contrarian thread of recent research sees yields drifting lower over the next year, leaning on softer growth and inflation, a Fed that hikes less than markets price, and already-attractive real yields. One published target has the 10-year at 4.40% by September 2027; another frames any decline as conditional on the Fed pausing and oil falling toward $70.
On the curve, several recent notes argue the long end stays elevated on fiscal pressure, with a modest duration overweight recommended over 6–12 months. In credit, the consensus leans toward short and intermediate investment grade over long credit, caution on high yield spreads, and growing wariness about the rising share of AI hyperscaler issuance.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 20 Oct 2026): Speculators (leveraged funds) are net short in all four contracts. US Treasury bond is at the crowded-long extreme (COT index 97: the smallest net short in a year); US 2-year note (89) and US 5-year note (84) are near the top of their 52-week range; US 10-year note (50) is mid-range.
• Federal Reserve policy rate 3.75–4.00%, last move +25 bp on 17 Sep 2026. Next decision 28 Oct 2026: 50 of 51 research houses expect a hold.
• United States 10-year yield 4.99%, 2-year 4.70% (U.S. Department of the Treasury, 27 Oct 2026).
Charts: finchiefs.com/data/policy-rates/federal-reserve