Published research this week lands heavily on one call: US Treasury yields are going higher across the curve, meaning bond prices lower.
The reasoning is stacked. Analysts point to inflation running above the Fed's target, a fully employed economy, and hawkish Fed signals — with markets now pricing in four or more additional rate hikes. A parallel thread argues something more structural: AI-driven corporate spending and widening fiscal deficits are creating durable competition for capital, keeping long-term yields elevated. Several fair-value models cited in recent research put the 10-year yield at 5.5–6% over the next 12–24 months, with one view targeting 6%+ on the 30-year.
In credit, the consensus favors investment grade (strong balance sheets, locked-in fixed rates) while flagging refinancing stress in the weakest high-yield tier, where yields near 15% are biting.
The main nuance: one strand of analysis expects a tactical bond rally first — a chance to add to underweights — before the larger move higher resumes. A minority view sees yields drifting lower only from late 2026.