Published research is nearly unanimous: US Treasury yields are set to grind higher across the curve, with only a narrow dissent at the very long end.
Three forces dominate the consensus view. First, sticky inflation — with Middle East oil shocks feeding straight into CPI expectations. Second, a hawkish Fed repricing after Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, with markets now pricing roughly 1.5 hikes by end-2026. Third, fiscal supply pressure from the $12 trillion annual Treasury rollover and widening deficits.
Analysts are split on which force matters most. One camp argues fiscal supply alone is enough to keep the long end elevated. A contrarian thread of recent research counters that growth and inflation — not fiscal credibility — are the real drivers, noting the US term premium still sits below Japan's and Germany's.
On levels, several published views see the 10Y testing 5% and the 30Y pushing toward 5.5%, with 6% flagged as a tail risk before any eventual retreat. Researchers also warn credit stress is building as high-yield borrowers roll debt at sharply higher rates.
The lone near-term dissent: one flattener call sees the 30Y falling as the Fed refocuses on inflation.