Published research is nearly unanimous this week: US Treasury yields face upward pressure across the curve, and the "higher for longer" regime is firmly intact.
The trigger was Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, which pushed the implied odds of a September rate hike to 55–60% and lifted 2-year yields around 6–7 bps, with 10-year yields rising more modestly. Beyond the meeting, several strands of recent analysis point to structural anchors: the sheer scale of US government debt, sticky inflation, and a fiscal-dominance argument that political pressure on Fed independence is raising the risk premium built into Treasuries. One camp warns a Fed credibility gap could see policymakers "lose control" of the long end. Another thread targets a 4.75%–5% range on the 10-year, citing heavy issuance and AI-driven productivity.
Not everyone agrees. A contrarian view argues the Fed's credible inflation stance actually pulled long yields lower right after Jackson Hole — though this hinges on the Fed keeping that credibility intact.