US Treasury yields have split the research community, with the bigger camp leaning toward higher yields but a serious minority betting the long end drifts lower.
On the higher-yields side, one aggressive published call sees the US 10-year climbing toward 6%, while another argues it stays above 4.25% indefinitely on deteriorating fiscal fundamentals and sticky inflation. Several research shops project a gradual rise consistent with steady Fed policy and above-trend growth, with one forecasting three Fed rate hikes before Q1 2027.
The other camp argues a Fed-Treasury coordination effort is designed to anchor long-end yields lower. A separate thread of analysis flags softer payrolls and lower oil as signs central bank hawkishness has peaked, implying 2-year yields may have topped. One contrarian view goes further, forecasting a collapse in yields toward zero in a deflationary crisis.
One area of quiet convergence: multiple research houses expect the curve to steepen into year-end, driven by fiscal risk premium and eventual Fed cuts. In credit, published views are cautious on leveraged loans but more constructive on high yield bonds.