Published research is split on US Treasuries, but the common thread is a steeper yield curve — not a clean call on outright levels.
On the short end, several research shops argue the June payrolls miss and cooling inflation expectations pull 2-year yields lower, with one camp calling market pricing of nearly two more Fed hikes by early 2027 excessive and ripe for a dovish reset. On the long end, a different strand of recent research points to hawkish Fed signals, oil-driven inflation risk, and worsening US fiscal dynamics keeping 10-year yields heavy — with one tactical view pairing a lower 2Y against a sticky 4.45–4.50% 10Y.
The outliers on either side are striking. One structurally bearish view targets 10-year yields near 6% over one to three years, citing faster nominal growth and rotation out of bonds. A more dovish forecast sees the 10Y drifting to roughly 4.20–4.25% by end-2026 as the Fed eases. On credit, one published forecast sees BBB spreads widening from ~105bp toward ~186bp by late 2026.
Note: I spotted "WisdomTree" mentioned in the source — I've folded that into "several research shops" per the neutral-attribution rule.