Published research this week leans bullish on crude, though the consensus is not unanimous.
Most energy analysts covering the space have raised price targets, pointing to a compounding set of supply shocks: the Iran conflict, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and Moscow's diesel export ban. Researchers argue these are forcing inventory drawdowns and keeping a risk premium in Brent and WTI. One camp notes the Brent futures curve is sitting well above pre-war levels, with tight inventories and limited refining capacity keeping upside risks dominant for the next two years. A more tactical read flags a potential near-term breakout if crude clears a key technical level.
A contrarian thread pushes back. Some recently published views argue the earlier shock is fading as Strait of Hormuz tensions ease, projecting a gradual decline — one scenario sees Dubai crude drifting toward $70–$80 by fiscal 2028.
The real split is about assumptions: bulls treat continued conflict as the base case, bears assume constructive de-escalation.