Published research on oil is leaning heavily bearish across the near and medium term, with supply normalization driving the shift — though a contrarian strand argues for higher prices on a multi-year view, and one tactical case sees upside if Iran tensions flare.
The bearish consensus rests on three reinforcing developments that most recent research highlights: tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, OPEC+ is incrementally unwinding production cuts from August, and Gulf exports — including from Iraq, which is aggressively re-marketing Basrah grades to Asian refiners — are back near pre-war levels. Some analysts add that futures curves stuck in contango point to a near-term glut, and that the UAE's exit from OPEC+ removes a structural cap on supply over time. One recurring argument is that softer energy prices also reduce pressure on the Fed to keep policy tight.
A contrarian published view sees Brent averaging around $80/bbl by 2027 on lasting post-conflict adjustments — a horizon call, not a direct rebuttal.
Separately, one thread of research flags US West Coast gasoline as a standout: refinery shutdowns and a global refined-product shortage are expected to drive prices sharply higher into the second half, regardless of where crude trades.