Published research this week leans bearish on crude, with most analysts arguing Brent and WTI face sustained downward pressure now that the US-Iran ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have stripped out the geopolitical risk premium.
The core argument across the published consensus: Gulf energy flows are back, sanctions are easing, and additional Iranian barrels are heading to market. Some recent notes add softer Chinese demand and lower Saudi official selling prices to the mix. One camp goes further, calling the geopolitical premium "simply vanished" and suggesting bounces be sold toward a $70–$72 WTI target. A structural view making the rounds reads oil's failure to break Ukraine-war highs even during active Middle East conflict as evidence of supply resilience and a lower-for-longer trajectory.
A contrarian thread sees a tactical dip to roughly $70 Brent followed by recovery toward $85 by year-end on structural undersupply, with a longer-term floor near $75.
The minority warning: if the ceasefire fractures, heavy short positioning could fuel a sharp squeeze — one published view flags $140 as more likely than $40 in that scenario.