European natural gas: two timeframes, two stories — but both point to a market stuck well above pre-war norms.
Research published this week argues TTF prices will stay elevated through this winter. The case: gas has roughly tripled from pre-war levels to around 90-100, European storage is only 74-75% against an 80% target just as drawdown season starts, and the futures curve stays elevated into 2028. Europe will also be competing with Asia for spot LNG shipments over winter.
A separate strand of analysis looks further out and expects prices to ease in 2027 as new LNG capacity comes online — though still above pre-war levels. That view also notes gas and power prices currently sit at only around 30% of their 2022-23 shock peaks.
The disagreement is really about horizon, not direction. One camp sees tight storage and Asian demand keeping prices high near-term; the other sees supply relief arriving in 2027. Both agree the pre-war price regime isn't coming back soon.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 27 Oct 2026; ESMA, as of 30 Oct 2026): US natural gas (Henry Hub): speculators (managed money) are net short, 12.3% of open interest, the largest net short in a year, crowded short (COT index 0). Dutch TTF gas: speculators (investment funds) are net long, 9.9% of open interest, mid-range (COT index 67).