Natural gas is splitting sharply by region, according to recently published research.
On US Henry Hub, the published consensus leans bearish near term. Researchers point to above-average November temperatures, dry gas production back above 109 Bcf/d, storage builds around 80 BCF, and mild heating demand. Some analysts expect the December contract to drop below $3.00/MMBtu, averaging $2.80–2.90 next week, with one bearish view targeting $2.50. A contrarian thread flags upside risk: managed money is holding its largest net short since 2020, so any colder forecast could trigger a sharp short-covering rally.
Europe and Asia look firmer. One camp of analysts is bullish on TTF into early November, citing geopolitical risk, a possibly colder winter start, and EU storage running about 10 points below last year. Roughly 93% of Qatar's LNG transits Hormuz, and the IEA reportedly sees Qatar and UAE LNG supply about 45% lower in 2026. A dissenting view argues a Middle East peace deal reopening Hormuz would pull TTF down, though storage at 74.3% full limits that downside.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 27 Oct 2026; ESMA, as of 23 Oct 2026): US natural gas (Henry Hub): speculators (managed money) are net short, 12.3% of open interest, the largest net short in a year, crowded short (COT index 0). Dutch TTF gas: speculators (investment funds) are net long, 11.0% of open interest, near the top of the 52-week range (COT index 74).