Natural gas has no clean consensus right now — US and global markets are telling different stories.
On US Henry Hub, the published research view leans bearish: ample storage, mild heating demand, and a weak chart. One technical call argues for selling rallies toward $3.00 and targeting the 250 area, with support at 280 then 270.
On European TTF and Asian JKM, the tone shifts higher, driven by geopolitics. Researchers point to threatened Gulf LNG exports, Hormuz shipping risk, and European storage sitting below seasonal norms. A separate weather-focused thread argues cooler European temperatures could squeeze prices after the pullback from above EUR 100/MWh. For Q4 2026, one published forecast puts TTF averaging around EUR 79/MWh and JKM near $25.40/MMBtu, with upside if escalation hits Gulf flows.
The contrarian view: some recently-published analysis argues TTF could fall if US–Iran de-escalation materializes, noting regional LNG flows have recovered less than oil. So the disagreement is really about scenarios, not assumptions.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 27 Oct 2026; ESMA, as of 23 Oct 2026): US natural gas (Henry Hub): speculators (managed money) are net short, 12.3% of open interest, the largest net short in a year, crowded short (COT index 0). Dutch TTF gas: speculators (investment funds) are net long, 11.0% of open interest, near the top of the 52-week range (COT index 74).