European gas prices look set to climb this winter, according to a clear majority of recently published research.
Several independent research notes this week converge on upside risk for TTF, the European gas benchmark. The published consensus points to thin inventories and disrupted Gulf LNG as the core drivers. One analysis flags TTF already at a four-year high near EUR 93.50/MWh, with storage roughly 100 TWh below last year and nearly 140 LNG cargoes short of the five-year average. Another notes EU storage appears to have peaked just under 75% full and started drawing early, with Gulf LNG flows likely largely absent through much of winter. A separate thread of research highlights cold weather, weak wind generation, and record-low reserves, noting about 20% of global LNG supply used to transit Hormuz before the Middle East conflict.
On magnitude: one scenario sees TTF rising roughly 70%, from about EUR 90 to 150/MWh, if Middle East LNG stays near a third of 2025 levels and winter runs colder than normal. A Qatari export recovery would instead pull prices toward 70. Researchers do not expect a return to the 2022 peak of 300, citing demand destruction and new non-Middle East supply.