Published research is leaning bullish on European natural gas (TTF) heading into winter, with prices already near EUR 90/MWh and storage unusually thin.
Researchers point to the same supply picture: European storage sits at roughly a 15-year low, in part because a backwardated forward curve made it unprofitable to inject gas over the summer. Qatari LNG flows are running at about 20% of pre-war levels, and Europe is now bidding against Asia for spare cargoes. One strand of recent analysis flags that European gas prices are already at their highest since 2022.
The swing factor, analysts agree, is weather. A sustained cold spell — especially if paired with fresh LNG shipment disruptions — is the scenario the published research sees pushing prices higher through the coming winter. The bullish calls are explicitly conditional on that.
A separate, more academic thread argues that pricing emissions on the demand side alone could actually lower global gas prices by curbing fossil fuel demand. That is a policy-model implication, not a market forecast, and no timeframe is attached.