Published research is leaning bullish on natural gas, pointing to upside pressure in the near-to-medium term from a mix of geopolitical disruption and seasonal demand risks.
Researchers argue prices are being held up by supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions, especially repeated incidents near the Strait of Hormuz, with the positive bias expected to persist over the coming months. The same analysis flags El Niño through 2026–2027 as an added swing factor on both the demand and supply side.
A separate strand of recently published policy research zeroes in on the UK as a particular weak spot. The argument: heavy reliance on natural gas, limited storage, and retail contracts that reset frequently leave UK consumers unusually exposed to global price shocks, with that vulnerability likely to stretch into 2026 if Middle East conflict drags on.
The split is really about scope. One view is a global call on gas driven by geopolitics and weather. The other is a country-level warning that structural features of the UK market amplify whatever the global price does.