Natural gas researchers were uniformly bullish this week, pointing to tight supply from the Gulf through Europe into North America.
On the global front, analysts flagged prolonged Qatari LNG disruptions, constrained Hormuz traffic, and reduced Ras Laffan output as reasons to expect global LNG tightness heading into winter. European commentary noted TTF above 175p/therm — the highest since 2022 — with storage below EU targets and geopolitical risk keeping prices elevated for longer. One thread highlighted that option markets imply roughly a 1-in-4 chance of European gas prices doubling over the next 12 months, with a cool winter potentially pushing TTF toward the $60–$70/MMBtu zone seen during the Ukraine crisis.
In North America, technical work framed Henry Hub's break above $3.05 as opening the door to $3.20–$3.30 resistance. Longer-term, producer-side analysis argued the structural demand ramp from LNG exports, oil sands and data centers should tighten both AECO (toward C$4/GJ) and NYMEX into 2027–2029.