Published research is lining up behind higher natural gas prices — both European TTF and US Henry Hub — with no meaningful dissent on direction in this week's macro commentary.
The bullish case rests on two reinforcing points. First, European storage is running well below norms: analysts variously peg current fill at around 60–65%, versus a seasonal norm closer to 80% and policy targets of 80–90%. Second, one strand of research highlights that Qatari LNG supply has been sharply curtailed by an effective five-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz, forcing European and Asian buyers to bid against each other for alternative cargoes. Researchers note TTF has already climbed roughly 75% since June to multi-year highs, and price forecasts have been revised up on the view that Hormuz flows will not normalise before winter.
On the US side, one camp argues demand could rise 50% by 2032 as LNG export capacity doubles and data-centre power needs grow, with pipeline bottlenecks limiting supply response. The same analysts flag one caveat: a super El Niño delivering a mild winter could soften prices near-term — a scenario overlay, not a change in the structural call.