Natural gas split sharply this week between a bullish global LNG story and a softer US picture.
European and Asian gas drew the most bullish commentary, with multiple research notes arguing TTF and JKM are still underpricing the Strait of Hormuz disruption that has removed over 10% of global LNG supply. Published forecasts pointed to TTF averaging around €60/MWh in Q3 and potentially peaking near $76/MWh this winter, with JKM seen near $18/MMBtu in 2026 as storage refill competition intensifies and Asian cooling demand builds. Positioning data cited by analysts showed funds trimming net longs, which one thread argued leaves room for upside if Hormuz flows stay impaired.
Henry Hub looked very different. Late-week commentary leaned bearish, describing US gas as "decoupled" from oil on soft fundamentals, ample storage, and rising associated gas from oil drilling — with one forecast pegging 2026 at $3.75 and 2027 at $3.50. A counterpoint flagged AI-driven power demand as a longer-term upside risk.