Natural gas is splitting in two: bearish for US prices, bullish for Europe and Asia — that's the message coming out of recently published research.
On the US side, the published research consensus sees Henry Hub structurally oversupplied through 2027. One camp of analysts argues rising associated gas from oil drilling will more than offset near-term support from softer storage builds and resumed LNG exports. Another recent analysis notes US gas has "completely decoupled" from oil, with weak fundamentals, plentiful storage, and high production dragging prices down.
The international picture looks very different. Some recently published forecasts see European gas peaking around €76/MWh this winter, citing LNG supply chain tightness and fierce competition for cargoes as storage refills clash with disrupted Middle East flows. A separate thread of research argues both European and Asian LNG are currently underpriced, with upside building as alternative supply growth slows into year-end and seasonal demand picks up — cooling in Asia, storage injection in Europe.
The views aren't contradictory; they describe different markets.