Natural gas is a tale of three regions right now, according to recently published research.
European TTF and US Henry Hub face upward pressure from Middle East supply disruptions, while Alberta's AECO benchmark is expected to stay deeply weak through summer before a heating-season recovery.
Researchers argue European TTF could average around €45/MWh in 2026 — roughly 40% above pre-conflict levels — citing Gulf supply disruptions, tight global LNG, and fallout from the Strait of Hormuz closure. One camp of analysts adds that because gas still sets the price for European power, the renewables buildout won't displace it for years, keeping prices elevated over the next 6–12 months. The published consensus sees moderation toward €35/MWh only by 2027.
For Henry Hub, the view is scenario-dependent: above $4.50 if Iran tensions escalate and LNG exports tighten, below $2.75 if fears ease and inventories stay ample.
On Alberta AECO, some recently-published views point to strong Western Canada production, full storage, and limited pipeline capacity potentially pushing prices well under a dollar by late August — before winter demand lifts them.