Published research this week flags LNG as a relative winner if Strait of Hormuz disruption drags on.
The argument from one recent analysis: a prolonged Middle East supply shock pushes all marine fuel prices higher, but oil-based bunker fuels take the sharpest hit. LNG rises in absolute terms too — just less. That narrowing gap between LNG and oil-derived fuels is what matters commercially.
The published case is that as the price spread compresses, LNG becomes more attractive to shipping operators, and expanding global liquefaction capacity helps absorb that incremental demand without the same squeeze oil-linked fuels would face.
The call is explicitly conditional. Analysts framing this view stress it depends on Middle East conflict and oil market disruption actually persisting. If tensions ease and oil flows normalize, the relative-outperformer thesis weakens with it.
Worth watching as a second-order read on the geopolitical risk premium: not just what crude does, but how the fuel mix underneath global shipping shifts in response.