Natural gas pushed higher on both sides of the Atlantic this week as Middle East supply risk collided with already-tight fundamentals.
European TTF jumped sharply early in the week, with research flagging missile strikes on Qatari LNG trains and delays to a major expansion project. One analytical thread argued the market is still underpricing the risk of lost Persian Gulf supply, with storage at 34% full versus a five-year average near 46%. A separate forecast called for higher TTF prices from late Q2 as injections must accelerate to hit EU storage targets. Global LNG balances through 2030 were also revised tighter, scrapping prior calls for a 2027–2031 glut.
At Henry Hub, June futures firmed toward $2.83 with the curve steepening, supported by a smaller-than-expected storage build, strong LNG feedgas demand, and a structural demand story tied to over 130GW of proposed data center power, most of it gas-fired. US exporters were highlighted as primary beneficiaries of Qatari constraints.