Natural gas looks bullish on both sides of the Atlantic, according to research published this week.
On the US side, researchers argue Henry Hub has near-term upside after the latest storage injection came in below both market expectations and the five-year average — a setup that tightens the supply-demand balance.
In Europe, a separate strand of published analysis flags that German and Dutch storage levels are running well below seasonal norms. The view there: TTF prices likely need to climb into the €50–60/MWh range late in Q2 and through Q3 to pull in spot LNG cargoes and encourage the gas-to-coal switching needed to hit EU storage fill targets.
A contrarian thread of recent research ties elevated European gas directly to the Middle East conflict, arguing that Strait of Hormuz disruptions are constraining global LNG supply and will likely persist into August — keeping upward pressure on prices intact.
Bottom line from the published consensus: tight balances, lagging inventories, and geopolitical supply risk all point the same direction.