AI capex and how it gets funded is the theme dominating published research this week, with the Fed's hawkish turn under Chair Warsh and a Middle East oil shock running underneath.
Researchers broadly flag an AI stock rebound tied to Anthropic's IPO filing, with semiconductor indices up nearly 3%. But a growing camp of analysts is pivoting from excitement to financing mechanics: Broadcom's $63bn deal, Meta's equity raise, and hyperscalers now making up roughly 11-12% of bond supply. Independent central bank research notes their long-dated bonds are pushing up Treasury term premia. Positioning data cited in recent notes shows hedge funds cutting tech at the fastest pace since 2016, and one strand of commentary argues the AI trade is "on trial" over free cash flow. A contrarian published view expects deceleration within 18-30 months; others see a bubble peak closer to 2027.
On the Fed, the consensus expects a hawkish hold Wednesday with December priced in — though a minority of researchers argue a hike should come now.