The US-Iran conflict and the oil shock it's triggered are dominating markets, with published research arguing Brent near $115-117 is reshaping the central-bank week.
Multiple research notes tie the risk directly to the window after the 3 November US midterms, when renewed strikes on Iran are seen as likely. One camp of analysts warns refined fuel and diesel tightness could persist well into 2027.
That energy-driven inflation pulse is why the published consensus expects the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan to hold this week while keeping a December hike on the table. Researchers broadly stress that forward guidance will matter more than the decisions themselves, and some argue the hawkish tone keeps the dollar supported.
The second theme analysts are flagging is AI funding strain: hyperscaler spending is outrunning free cash flow, with Meta's negative free cash flow and stress at neocloud borrowers cited as evidence. A contrarian thread frames this as rotation or boom rather than bubble. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon earnings this week are the test.