Three themes are driving markets right now, according to this week's published macro research: the Fed's next move, France's fiscal and political mess, and the AI capex boom reshaping growth and yields.
On the Fed, the research consensus points to an October pause with a December hike still live, hinging on the September CPI print due Oct 14. One camp of analysts argues Waller and other officials are signaling more tightening may be needed; a contrarian thread notes narrowing inflation breadth and softer payrolls argue for patience.
On France, researchers widely flag the French-German bond spread near its widest since 2011–12, pricing political gridlock, a deficit above 5% of GDP, and the looming 2027 election. The ECB's backstop tool is cited as a safety net, but published views stress the bar to activate it is high.
On AI, several recently-published analyses frame the capex boom as the main engine pushing US growth above trend — and the key reason long-dated Treasury yields have surged even with inflation expectations anchored. Analysts warn the trade is fragile: OpenAI's revenue miss just triggered an algo-driven Nasdaq selloff.
Watch CPI, Powell on Oct 15, and French budget headlines.