Three forces are driving macro markets right now, according to this week's published research: a global bond selloff, a Middle East energy shock, and France's fiscal crisis widening eurozone spreads to multi-decade extremes.
On rates, the consensus across recent research notes is that US 10-year Treasury yields near 24-year highs around 5.3% reflect hawkish Fed minutes, consumer inflation expectations near 3.9%, and core PCE stuck above 2.5%. One camp reads the minutes as effectively a hold; another argues a year-end hike is firmly on the table.
On energy, several analysts argue that attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping, damage to Russian refineries, and a depleted US Strategic Petroleum Reserve have pushed Brent above $100 and are feeding global inflation expectations directly.
On France, published research flags 10-year spreads over German Bunds at post-2012 highs of 140–160 bps, with debt-to-GDP above its COVID peak. A contrarian thread warns of a doom loop if yields near 5%; the prevailing view sees ECB intervention only under systemic stress.