Two stories are driving global markets right now: a fragile US–Iran ceasefire and a sharply more hawkish Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
On energy, the published research consensus is that the interim US–Iran agreement has stripped a major risk premium out of crude, with Brent falling from near $110 to the high-$70s. But analysts broadly warn the deal lacks nuclear enforcement and could unravel. A more skeptical thread of recent research points to unresolved nuclear issues and ongoing Iranian drone activity, while a more constructive camp cites resumed tanker traffic and Saudi price cuts as signs of genuine normalization. European gas storage well below its five-year average is a reminder, researchers note, that energy risk hasn't vanished.
On the Fed, multiple research desks flag Warsh's June meeting as a pivotal hawkish turn — forward guidance scrapped, price stability re-centered, and the dot plot now penciling in at least one more hike this year. Markets repriced fast: the dollar broke to multi-month highs, short-end yields rose, gold sold off. Some analysts still expect rates on hold through 2026; others assign real odds to a hike before year-end. The Bank of Japan's move to 1.0% and UK political turbulence around Starmer's exit add to the cross-currents.
Key catalysts cited: US Core PCE, flash PMIs, and Fedspeak.