Two macro stories dominated research desks this week, and they're tangled together: a US-Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and a hawkish surprise at the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Multiple research notes highlight that the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding has pulled Brent crude from above $110 to the high $70s–low $80s, stripping out a major geopolitical risk premium and easing near-term inflation pressure. At the same time, the published consensus flags the June FOMC as a structural regime shift: nine of eighteen participants now project at least one more hike in 2026, forward guidance was scrapped, and the statement was cut to its shortest form since 2007. Analysts widely warn this makes the Fed harder to read meeting-to-meeting.
Researchers are split on what comes next. One camp argues that with oil down roughly 30% and inflation expectations rolling over, further hikes are unlikely and the dot plot overstates intent. A contrarian thread sees a credible hike as soon as September, citing core PCE at 3.3% and Q2 GDP tracking near 3%. A middle view holds that the Iran deal itself caps the hawkish scenario.
Next tests: US core PCE, euro area and UK flash PMIs, and whether Hormuz flows hold.