Two stories are dominating macro right now, and published research is converging on both.
First, the Strait of Hormuz disruption. A broad swath of recent research flags it as the defining shock of this cycle — analysts point to Brent pushing toward $110, historic inventory drawdowns, and a structural inflation premium now embedded in global rates. The published consensus is that this is already reshaping Fed expectations: hikes are being priced where cuts sat weeks ago. Researchers also document a synchronised bond selloff, with US 30-year yields above 5% and UK gilts at multi-decade highs.
Second, the AI capex cycle. Multiple research threads converge on a $750–800 billion hyperscaler buildout reshaping earnings, corporate credit, and Asian semiconductor demand — while adding near-term cost pressure through chips and power.
Where analysts split: one camp argues corporate earnings can absorb the rate shock; a more cautious view notes 10-year yields near 5% have historically marked equity inflection points. On AI and jobs, some see no labour damage justifying cuts; others flag mounting political pushback.
Catalysts ahead: FOMC minutes, Warsh's swearing-in as Fed Chair, US–Iran talks, UK CPI, and the BoJ meeting (a hike is ~78% priced).