Published research is converging on a single story today: a Hormuz-driven oil shock is rewiring global rates and central bank expectations.
With the Strait of Hormuz closure approaching eleven weeks and no diplomatic off-ramp, a wide range of analysts point to Brent above $110/bbl as the anchor event. The published consensus is that hot US CPI and PPI prints, layered onto the energy shock, have forced markets to reprice the Fed from cuts toward hikes — researchers note 10-year Treasury yields above 4.6% and 30-year yields through 5.1%, the highest since 2007. UK gilts and Japanese JGBs are under parallel stress, with multiple research notes flagging the 30-year JGB above 4% for the first time since the late 1990s.
Views diverge on what comes next. One camp argues hike risk is still underpriced and warns of a Volcker-style tightening path; a contrarian thread still pencils in a cut by late 2026. On the recent US-China summit, some frame the outcome as a modest stabiliser, while others stress the absence of any strategic reset.
Watch Fed minutes, May flash PMIs, and the BOJ's June meeting as the next pressure points.