Today's macro picture is dominated by two stories: the Strait of Hormuz crisis and a US jobs report that reshuffled Fed expectations.
Published research broadly anchors to the oil supply shock from the US-Iran exchange — roughly 14 million barrels per day removed, per IEA estimates. One camp of analysts details the physical squeeze: inventories at decade lows, refined product shortages, a restocking cycle potentially running into 2028. Others frame it as binary, with a US-Iran deal the key catalyst for a broad risk re-rating.
On US jobs, the consensus read of the 115k beat (vs ~65k expected), 4.3% unemployment, and softer 0.2% wage growth is a labor market that's resilient but cooling — enough to keep the Fed on hold, not enough to force cuts.
Researchers diverge sharply on timing. One view sees only gradual oil normalization over 6–9 months; a contrarian thread expects the Strait reopening by end-May. On Fed cuts, some have pushed them to H2 2025 on inflation risk; others retain earlier cut paths contingent on softer oil and labor data.
Watch: US-Iran response, the Trump-Xi summit, and April CPI.