Two stories are dominating macro desks today: a possible US–Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the AI investment supercycle reshaping equity leadership.
On energy, the published research consensus flags diplomatic progress as the day's biggest market mover, with Brent down 7–8% toward $100–101 as the Hormuz risk premium unwinds. Researchers note the Strait's closure had removed roughly 15–20% of global oil supply — the largest energy shock on record — and one camp warns Asian reserves could be exhausted within four to six weeks if it stays shut. Several analysts tie the shock directly to US PCE inflation pushing back above 4%, arguing the Fed is more likely to delay cuts than to hike. A contrarian thread suggests tightening fears are overdone and H2 cuts remain on the table.
On AI, recently published views frame surging semiconductor and data-centre demand as a structural earnings driver, with strong chipmaker results fueling a broad risk-on rally. East Asian equities are flagged as standout beneficiaries.
Watch Friday's US payrolls and the Hormuz timeline.