Gold: the split in published research is really a split in time horizon, not a split in direction.
One camp of analysts holds a strategic bullish case for gold as a long-term store of value, arguing it belongs in portfolios for wealth preservation given macro and geopolitical risks. This view acknowledges near-term choppiness — including possible price distortion through derivatives markets — but looks past it.
A separate strand of recently published research takes the opposite tactical stance, pointing to renewed US–Iran diplomatic progress easing safe-haven demand, and a restrictive Fed weighing on assets that pay no yield. Strong physical demand from China offers some support, these researchers argue, but not enough to offset the headwinds.
A more ambitious strategic call in the published research floats gold reaching $6,500 over two to three years — but explicitly conditional on the Fed being forced to pivot from hikes to cuts as recession risk builds from elevated energy prices.
Bottom line from the research: tactical caution, strategic constructive, conditional on the Fed.