Published research this week is unanimously bullish on gold — the debate is only over the time horizon.
The strategic case, as several strands of recent research frame it, rests on persistent dollar debasement, chronic US fiscal imbalances, and steady central bank accumulation. One camp draws a direct parallel to the 1970s, when gold surged during a prolonged dollar depreciation, and argues today's setup rhymes. Others point to entitlement spending, defense outlays, and structural deficits as forces set to erode fiat purchasing power for years to come. A supply angle also appears in the published research: mine production is growing only around 1.7% a year, well short of demand from central banks diversifying away from the dollar and from retail flows into physical bars and ETFs.
Tactically, analysts note gold's resilience near the $4,000 support level after a post-FOMC selloff, which some read as an emerging base for a stickier rally if US yields roll over. A related view holds that gold may already be front-running an eventual Fed pivot.