Published research this week leans firmly bullish on gold, with the only dissent coming from a short-term tactical call.
The bullish case, laid out across several recent research notes, rests on familiar pillars: geopolitical stress around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, oil-driven inflation pressure, and record-pace central bank buying led by China. One camp frames gold explicitly as portfolio insurance against fiscal strain and currency debasement. Another argues that if the Fed softens its stance, easing real yields hand gold back its momentum.
On price, one published forecast targets an average of $4,500/oz in Q4 2026, citing falling Treasury yields, dip-buying, and US midterm elections as safe-haven catalysts. A more strategic thread argues the recent $3,900 low becomes the new base, with a long-run path toward $20,000/oz built on de-dollarisation and a potential US revaluation of official gold reserves.
The dissent is narrower than it looks: a contrarian tactical view sees near-term downside from a stronger dollar and multi-year highs in long-end yields, arguing gold must reclaim $4,350–$4,425 to turn. It's a timing disagreement, not a fundamental one.