Gold: research published this week is split near-term but broadly agrees the long-run trajectory is higher.
The tactical case for weakness, according to several recently published analyses, centers on forced reserve selling by countries funding active wars. Gold often falls *during* conflict as nations liquidate holdings — Turkey's central bank selling is cited as an example — and one camp argues prices are approaching a bottom but haven't reached it yet.
The strategic bull case, echoed across much of the published research, rests on fiscal and monetary excess: persistent stimulus, deteriorating debt dynamics, and the likelihood that central banks are eventually forced to cap bond yields. A contrarian thread also argues that a prolonged US-China standoff would push China to recycle yuan surpluses into gold reserves. Some recent notes go further, framing current prices as capitulation-level oversold — comparisons to 2008 have appeared.
The clearest genuine disagreement is cyclical: one lone bearish view expects the pullback to extend through year-end, against a research consensus looking for higher prices within twelve months.