Gold research is split by time horizon: near-term pressure looks firmly downward, but the longer-term case stays cautiously bullish once a floor forms.
Researchers tie last week's 2% drop in gold to rising opportunity cost, as money markets started pricing in more rate hikes and oil-driven inflation reinforced tightening expectations — a clear headwind for an asset that pays no yield.
A separate strand of published analysis emphasizes the chart damage: gold has broken below the psychologically important $4,000 level, and reclaiming $4,200 would be needed to turn the picture constructively bullish again. Key support is now seen forming near $3,900, with the Fed rate-path narrative dominating over geopolitical tailwinds in the short run.
Looking further out, that same research argues structural inflation risks and ongoing geopolitical tensions — particularly around oil and Iran — will ultimately underpin a renewed bull market, with a multi-year target as high as $6,000. The tactical pullback is framed as a setup, not a reversal.