Gold: published research skews constructive, but the disagreement over the next 12 months is real.
The bull case, drawn from recent third-party research, rests on softening Fed rate-hike expectations, weaker US jobs data, and political pressure on central bank independence — all supportive for a non-yielding asset. Multiple research notes also point to persistent central bank buying, gold's diversification role, and low correlation with equities. One structural argument ties the rally to record sovereign debt, loose policy, and currency debasement, with long-run price targets well above today's levels. Another recently-published view flags that central bank gold reserves now exceed dollar reserves, alongside a physical supply squeeze.
The pushback is horizon-driven. Some analysts argue gold has run ahead of itself and expect a pullback toward $3,800–$4,000 before the next leg up. A contrarian thread sees a short tactical bounce but a multi-quarter decline. The most bearish published view projects a 60–70% drop, rejecting the safe-haven framing entirely.