Gold's rough quarter met a late-week pivot as softer US data revived the bull case.
Early in the week, research flagged gold's worst quarter in over a decade, with prices breaking below $4,000 on fading debasement fears, easing Middle East tensions, and a hawkish Fed backdrop. One bearish thread argued rising real yields and a firmer dollar could pressure prices another 10–15% lower, with $3,860 flagged as a key technical level and $3,500 as deeper support. A separate note warned that higher Indian import duties could shave demand at the margin.
From Thursday onward, the tone shifted. Following soft US private payrolls and less-hawkish signals from Fed Chair Warsh, multiple research desks argued the setup for gold had improved — pointing to a weaker dollar, peaking real yields, washed-out positioning, and persistent central bank buying. Medium-term targets cited ranged from $4,300–$4,500 into year-end, with one long-horizon call floating $10,000 by decade-end if reserve diversification continues. Structural bulls still frame pullbacks as accumulation zones.