Published research on gold leans bullish, but conviction isn't universal.
The bullish case, argued across several recent research notes, hinges on a softer Fed. Analysts point to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's less hawkish tone and weaker US private payrolls as easing pressure for rate hikes — which lowers the cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold. One camp sees a cyclical recovery into the second half of 2026, with price targets in the $4,300–$4,500 range, and stays structurally bullish into 2027 on steady central bank buying. A more ambitious published view frames roughly $4,000 as a strategic entry point, projecting $10,000 by decade's end as central banks diversify away from dollar and euro reserves.
Not everyone agrees. A contrarian thread of recent research flags a sharp drop in non-monetary gold exports and calls the near-term setup bearish. Another cyclically bearish view labels gold a "busted trade" until a dovish Fed regime is actually confirmed.
The real split is at the tactical horizon, where analysts read the same Fed signals in opposite directions.