Gold sits in contested territory: published research is deeply split, with no consensus on where it goes next.
The bull case, echoed across several strands of recent research, rests on three pillars: central banks continuing to diversify away from the US dollar, fiscal and monetary stress in developed economies, and geopolitical risk supporting hard assets over multi-year horizons.
A contrarian camp of analysts pushes back, pointing to higher-for-longer US rates, hawkish Fed commentary, resilient labor data, and fading safe-haven demand as Iran-related risk premiums compress. One recently-published view notes the "debasement" narrative that fueled the prior rally has materially weakened — gold just logged its worst quarter in over a decade. A tactical thread of research adds that a decisive close below $4,000 could open a path toward $3,500.
The split is really about horizon. Bullish calls are strategic; bearish calls are near-term. Some researchers argue renewed escalation, a dovish Fed pivot, or a surge in central-bank buying could drive prices to $4,500–$5,000, while downside scenarios of 10–15% hinge on resilient growth and rising yields.