Gold's outlook splits cleanly by time horizon: tactically cautious, strategically bullish.
Researchers tracking near-term momentum argue the dollar's strength is weighing on gold, with one published view flagging the $4,020–$4,025 zone as the next critical support if the dollar keeps rallying. A separate strand of recent research notes that war-related selling pressure may extend that medium-term weakness before the longer story takes over.
On the strategic side, the published research consensus is constructive. One camp of analysts expects gold to hover near historic highs through 2026 and beyond, citing central bank diversification away from the dollar, sustained ETF inflows, and steady safe-haven demand from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.
A more structural thread argues the Iran conflict marks the end of unipolarity — denting confidence in the US security umbrella and accelerating Chinese and Russian preparations for a post-dollar reserve order in which gold plays a central role.
So: not contradictory calls, but sequentially layered ones.