Gold spent the week caught between a hawkish Fed and a still-intact structural bull case — and the published tone turned more cautious as the week progressed.
Early in the week, much of the research leaned constructive: analysts pointed to central bank accumulation (with survey data showing a high share of central banks planning to add reserves), de-dollarization, fiscal deficits, and Asian physical demand as durable supports. Several technical reads argued a floor was forming near $4,000, with longer-term targets cited in published work ranging from $5,200 year-end to $5,500–$6,000 over a longer horizon. One forecaster trimmed a year-end target to $5,200 from $5,600, citing a later expected first Fed cut (December).
By the second half of the week, the consensus shifted more defensive. Multiple analysts flagged that a hawkish Fed repricing — amplified by speculation around Kevin Warsh as a potential next Chair — plus easing Iran-related risk and softer oil were removing near-term catalysts. A contrarian thread noted positioning and sentiment now sit at extremes consistent with a tactical bounce.