Gold's near-term path has split the published research community, with safe-haven demand pulling one way and policy plus supply dynamics pulling the other.
One camp of analysts argues gold remains well-supported: risk-off flows tied to Iran-related geopolitical tension, softer bond yields, and lingering financial market uncertainty are the classic mix that drives safe-haven buying. A contrarian thread of recent research pushes the other way, flagging hawkish Fed messaging as a headwind for an asset that pays no yield, with added supply pressure from Russian central bank gold sales reinforcing a near-term bearish lean.
The disagreement is partly about framing. The bullish case is explicitly conditional on geopolitical tension holding — researchers note that a durable Iran peace deal would weaken it. The bearish case is macro- and supply-driven, not event-contingent. So they're weighting different dominant factors rather than forecasting the same scenario differently. Strip the conditionality away, though, and the two camps genuinely disagree on where gold goes next.