Gold spent the week caught between a near-term squeeze and an intact long-term bull case.
On the bearish side, multiple research notes flagged the same headwinds: surging oil from Middle East tensions, higher global bond yields, a firmer dollar, and central banks in stressed economies reportedly selling gold to defend FX reserves. Several technical reads pointed to the 200-day moving average near $4,300–$4,400 as the next test, with one tactical call explicitly targeting roughly $4,300 over three months if risk-off persists. The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed was cited by some as reducing the debasement premium gold has carried.
The structural bull case stayed loud, though. Analysts pointed to sustained Chinese official and household buying, fiscal deterioration in the US and Europe, reserve diversification, and gold's emerging role as a "confidence hedge" in strategic portfolios. Long-horizon targets cited in published work ranged from a return above $5,000 on any Hormuz de-escalation to $6,000+ and even $10,000 by 2030. The dominant framing: treat near-term weakness as a setup, not a top.