Gold: published research leans bullish across most horizons, but there's real tactical pressure and a notable split on what happens after 2027.
The bullish case, as several recent research notes argue, rests on gold's role as a hedge against geopolitical risk and inflation, with persistent Middle East tensions cited as a key driver. A broader research consensus points to renewed central bank buying — particularly from China and global South institutions — as structural demand. Some analysts extend this into a longer reserve-diversification thesis tied to a fading dollar dominance and China's reported push for gold-backed currency credibility.
The bearish camp flags the same headwind: elevated US rates and a stronger dollar make non-yielding gold less attractive, and India has guided citizens to buy less.
On price, one published view targets $5,000/oz by year-end; another sees a peak near $5,000 by March 2027 followed by a fade toward roughly $4,360 by late 2028. A contrarian technical read sees a near-term bounce from 4,627.