Gold: structural bulls dominate, but late-week voices flag a possible cyclical pause.
The week opened with a powerful rebound, with prices pushing toward $4,650–4,800 as a US–Iran ceasefire held, the dollar softened, and technical support near $4,500 attracted buyers. Across the published research, the structural case stayed intact: persistent central bank accumulation (notably China's PBoC), reserve diversification away from the dollar after the freezing of Russian assets, elevated fiscal deficits, and sticky inflation with real rates capped. Several analysts pointed to longer-dated targets in the $5,000–$6,000 range, with one outlier sketching $6,000–$8,000 over five years and another modeling an average $5,000 print for 2026.
By later in the week, a more cautious thread emerged. Multiple voices flagged that gold may be working through a correction echoing post-1980 and post-2011 peaks, with tactical signals (a shooting-star reversal pattern) and the risk of a dollar surge in any deflationary scare arguing for near-term downside before the secular uptrend resumes.